Abe-nomics, Bazookas and Cognitive Dissonance

In modern social psychology, cognitive dissonance is the feeling of discomfort when simultaneously holding two or more conflicting cognitions: ideas, beliefs, values or emotional reactions in your mind at the same time. The theory of cognitive dissonance proposes that people have a motivational drive to reduce dissonance by altering existing cognitions, adding new ones to create a consistent belief system, or alternatively by reducing the importance of any one of the dissonant elements.

Source: Wikipedia

Following last week’s announcement by Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda that it will “do anything it can” to get Japanese inflation up to 2%, JPMorgan said in a communication that the Japanese, European and U.S. central banks are now in the same camp when it comes to monetary stimulus. The JPM economist who provided that assessment is undoubtedly well-remunerated, being in the regular habit of taking obscurantist developments and putting them in language that his less erudite bosses find comforting, easy to understand and easy to pass on as Gospel to the bank’s clients and investors.

In fact, based on actual statements made recently by these various central banking institutions, it seems that nothing could be further from the truth.

In January, Bloomberg blared the headline “Bernanke Dissatisfied With Growth Will Press on With QE Pace”. The Fed seems to be expecting growth and NOT inflation to be the result of its QE program.

Based in his recent comments ECB Governor Draghi is also focused on pushing a form of QE in the hopes that Euro-Zone Growth can recover to a more stable and higher growth path.

However, in contrast, the BOJ is hoping for inflation, and not growth. The specifics are simply that Governor Kuroda announced plans to double the BOJ’’s monthly bond purchases and achieve 2 per cent annual inflation within the next 2 years. This follows the smaller-sized, though entirely similar, expansionary policy that in the last two years has caused the Yen to fall almost 20 percent against the majors. Only the Venezuelan Bolivar and Malawian Kwacha have fallen by more over the same period.

The reality is that over the last 4 years one of the most enduring fictions promulgated by the authorities and their handmaidens on 19^th Street, is that central bank money printing and central government pump priming will act together to generate self sustaining growth in the economies hit by the Global Financial Crisis. This is an elaborate fantasy on which we have commented before.

There is in fact no amount of funny money and deficit finance that can steer things back onto a sustainable path unless the obstacles to growth and recovery are removed. All of the serious economic research and actual economic history that we have reviewed supports this central truth.

And now we have evidence that the world’s central bankers do not even agree on what it is possible to achieve through QE.

Is it inflation or is it growth??

This is like asking you if the objective of your exercise regimen is to gain more muscle or more fat and you actually believe that you can achieve either by following the same plan.

The real reason for the QE being pursued in the various economies of the G7 and the Euro-Zone is that Government finances in certain key countries are hemorrhaging and that this is interfering with the ability of certain Governments  to even keep up the pretence that financing requirements can be funded in the normal course.

As such the latest BOJ announcement is a sign of weakness and cause for concern rather than renewed hope. The markets which rallied on the news have got it wrong.

Source: The Japan Times

Beyond this, there are additional problems and concerns specific to the just announced Japanese policy update. For example

• Financial Policy. THis latest policy wheeze is nothing more than another salvo in an ongoing currency war. Therefore it is only likely that Japan’s trading partners will pressure the Government there to slacken their efforts to weaken the Yen in order to preserve their own growth prospects. This could lead to international tensions over economic policies;
• Monetary Policy Flexibility. The BOJ has been expanding its QE more aggressively than either the the FED and ECB, burdening its balance sheet with riskier assets and making even the possibility of an exit from this policy nothing more than a wistful fancy;
• Investor and Consumer Behavior. The QE policy distorts price signals; obscures the risk and risk/reward properties of investments; penalizes savers at the expense of borrowers (The Government being the biggest with the biggest interest tab. See above.) and encourages mal-investment;
• Starting Point Risk. This policy does not sufficiently take into account the very serious structural problems in the Japanese economy which have hampered growth and resulted in deflation. These include, most importantly the failure to properly remediate weakness in bank balance sheets, the effects of an aging population, including waning tax receipts; and the fact that Japan already has the largest (and effectively unsustainable) debt load on the face of the planet;
• Re-entry Risk. Monetary Policy implementation is a very uncertain process and the transmission mechanisms and relationships are not stable or predictable in even the medium term. There is no plan, no way to reverse what is being proposed, not in Japan, not in Europe and not in the US. If these policies do act on inflation and money demand drops as the policymakers wish, then it may trigger a self reinforcing bout of price  inflation that (a) will be hard to control; (b) will cause a variety of easily anticipated economic problems, and (c) very likely create new unanticipated problems, stresses and conflicts relating to the policies of competitive devaluation that are being pursued.

Of course we are sure that the policy wonks at the BOJ (and the FED and the ECB) are completely aware of the dangers and problems regarding their policies and of which we write. It is just that they cannot muster the intestinal fortitude, leadership and political will to opt for a solution that does not amount to a combination of bargain basement wallpaper, cheap glue and a snappy sales patter.

Therefore, at this juncture it is of only one thing we can be certain: if there is a limit to “safe money printing” (as if this term is not an oxymoron in and of itself), then the current set of central bank incumbents seem dead-set on finding it.

“…nobody is qualified to wield unlimited power.”

Friedrich von Hayek, The Constitution of Liberty, 1960

Posted in Bank Loans, Banks, Crisis, EU, Fed Policy, IMF, Restructuring, USA | No Comments »

The Limits to Austerity

“An emphasis by bankers on the collateral value and expected value of assets is conducive to the emergence of a fragile financial structure.” Hyman Minsky, Stabilizing an Unstable Economy (1986).

More than 25 years ago the famed American economist Hyman Minsky postulated that financial stability would be weakened when lending in the economy became excessively dependent on the value of the underlying collateral rather than the income-earning potential of those same assets. In recent years his theories, this one included, have been vindicated by real world examples time and time again – the most obvious instance of a credit system run amok and dependant on rising asset prices was Japan in the Postwar period – everything was linked to real estate. They are still sweeping that one up….and even after more than twenty years of failure, most people in that economy remain oblivious to the incompetence of their bankers, policymakers, and government officials that led the country into the abyss.

Today in Europe (and elsewhere) we are witnessing the compounding of policy mistakes made not so much strictly in advance of the recent GFC (Global Financial Crash) but in the months and years since its sudden onset in 2008. These mistakes centre on a belief by the authorities that everything would be all right if collateral values just picked up, and their unshakeable conceit that what they have done and what they are doing to remediate the damage done by the crisis in this way is safe, efficient and correct.

In the face of it all, job prospects, particularly for Europe’s youth have worsened; plant closures have run apace, workers benefits have suffered, pensions and social services have been cut; yet the European economy remains stuck in neutral.

Last week for example thousands of workers again took to the streets to demand an end to the austerity measures that have seen a number of European countries wracked by social, strife, high unemployment, and despair. Most of the Euro-zone economies have remained mired in slow or negative growth mode for almost three years. With 26 Million out of work across the EU and the Eurozone registering its sixth consecutive quarter of negative growth, ordinary people are coming to the obvious conclusion : “….these policies do not work”.

In January, even the IMF got into the act by proclaiming that its austerity-based policy prescriptions may have been erroneous and could in fact be making things worse.

So its fairly easy to conclude that last week’s EU summit wasn’t exactly a warm and fuzzy family barbeque type of scenario. In fact the most recent set of meetings was probably the 250^th get-together involving politicians and government officials since the crisis began.   All of these jamborees have passed without a positive, workable solution to the crisis being tabled, much less implemented.

Last week was no different: Again, the usual platitudes were served up; accompanied by the usual hand-wringing from Europe’s brightest and best minds. No specific policies were discussed much less adopted that would have been aimed at steering away from austerity; and, importantly, there was no nod from  Germany and its po-faced representatives that they would in fact countenance such proposals if they were in fact seriously put forward.

The Vatican that is not the only Global Institution that is stuck in a rut!!

Artist: Jeremy Nell, The New Age, South Africa  -  3/15/2013

Moreover, we have said from the beginning that pursuing austerity policies in an effort to right the ship was a VERY long shot at best. In fact this interview from 2010 sums up our views on this matter quite neatly. In the intervening period since that segment aired it has also become obvious that there are a number of headwinds that are blunting the impact of aggressive expansionary policies. These factors are additional important reasons why the economies of the European countries (as well as those of the US, Canada, Japan) cannot seem to find any traction in generating growth significantly above “stall speed” despite the policy impetus:

• Government Debt loads have increased a lot and this has reduced policy flexibility while eating up revenues of cash strapped Governments;
• Rapidly developing demographic factors promise to chew up Government finances at both ends: lower tax revenues as people retire accompanied by higher pension, social assistance and health-care payouts;
• Basel III capital rules and other regulatory requirements are contractionary;
• Austerity has prompted significant increases in rent-seeking behavior and tax evasion;
• Financial repression has cut savers’ incomes and contributed to yawning pension shortfalls.
• There is more…….in fact the biggie is:

…….The Restructuring Deficit

For some time now it has been obvious that there have been no real attempts made to recognize, write down and remediate losses that occurred in the immediate wake of the GFC. In fact the entire focus of the policy response has been to avoid doing just that and to instead try and engineer a re-appreciation of collateral values in the economies so that investors, lenders and other creditors can see their asset exposures skate back onside.

“No Pain” is the Objective.

“Financial Repression” is the Name of the Game.

Unfortunately, these policies are not only delivering “Max Pain” for everyone but the creditors; they are risking the welfare and social peace of today’s generations of Europeans.

Under capitalistic forms of economic organization, Banks must ordinarily be held accountable to deal with their distressed credits promptly and the public balance sheet must not be used to subsidize bad risk decisions nor to prop up zombie companies at public expense and to the ultimate detriment of employees, taxpayers and other more efficient and productive entities.

However, this departure from the norm in order to favor creditor interests is exactly what has been happening.

These policies of Financial Repression have been followed before. The most obvious examples are failed communist states many of whom had to abandon the experiment over twenty years ago with the fall of the Berlin Wall and more recently, hyperinflationary Zimbabwe. Some examples in the developed economies include New Zealand in the late 1970’s / early 1980’s before the 1984 collapse and Germany in the immediate Post WWI “Weimar” period. In every instance, the outcome of these episodes was negative. Today, the Europeans (and  North America and Japan) are conducting policies of Financial Repression in a variety of formats.

The negative effects of these policies include restrained GDP growth, distorted asset markets, a drag on productivity, hidden credit risks, moral hazard, risk of higher inflation, misallocation of resources, destruction of savings, financial contagion and a de facto “theft” of market share and profitability from successful, non-zombie businesses. This has been accompanied in the austerity countries and many others in Europe (e.g. the UK) by rapid increases in debt levels.

Rising levels of debt may not be the only cause for alarm; particularly when one considers that they are accompanied by a single-minded focus to raise asset and collateral values. In those situations, (such as now) financial structures can become extremely precarious. This is because leveraged asset positions may not always generate enough spread revenue to either service or repay the debt. As a result, and according to Minsky, the financial system can become increasingly vulnerable to what would otherwise be relatively innocuous events, such as a small rise in interest rates or a decline in asset prices.

Italy 10 Year Bond Yield

As just one example in this regard, please note that prior to EMU, Italian bond yields were in the range of 11% and the Italian Treasury quite happily financed their deficits without any concerns. To compare, in today’s market a sustained rise in Italian yields above 6% would spell “Game-Over” for their economy – and for that of Europe.

Fascism on the Rise

A further non-trivial concern is that ominous storm clouds are forming over the European political landscape in reaction to the authorities’ tin-eared and single-minded focus on the solutions, inappropriate as they are, that they have been pursuing with vigor but with so far, none of the intended effect. Because of this, mainstream political parties are under pressure in many major Euro-zone countries. In Greece the far right parties’ membership comprise most of the police and security forces and have been rising in the polls. The Jobbik fanatics in Hungary are proposing a roll-back in social freedoms inconsistent with the EU Charter. Spaniards are trying to cope with secession risks and extremely high youth unemployment. The rise to prominence of Beppi Grillo’s Party in the recent Italian elections is being soft-pedaled by the mainstream media with the byline that “he is a comedian”. He is anything but. A cursory look at his website reveals hundreds of Anti-Semitic comments, diatribes and attacks while, at the same time, it shows him to be singing the praises of the fanatics that are running Iran, looting its Treasury, oppressing its people and exporting terrorism. Grillo’s party looks to be next in line to govern Italy.

It is worth remembering that Hitler and Mussolini were both elected by folks who didn’t want austerity

Unfortunately it seems that for now, the Brussels crowd is happy to be dancing on the edge of the volcano and, that nothing can convince them to take a less risky and saner path to recovery.

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La Ligne Maginot

The Maginot Line, named after the French Minister of War André Maginot, was a military defensive construct consisting of a deep line of concrete fortifications, tank obstacles, artillery casements, machine gun posts, and other defenses, which France constructed along its borders with Germany and Italy, during the interwar period between WWI and WWII.

Military experts extolled the Maginot Line as a work of genius, believing at that time that it rendered France impregnable against invasion from Germany. In the event, while the fortifications successfully acted to dissuade direct attack, they were completely ineffective from a strategic military standpoint. This obvious defect was laid bare at the beginning of WWII when the German Blitzkrieg easily outflanked the Maginot Line by moving through the Ardennes forest and Holland, completely sweeping past the heavily defended fortifications and conquering France in less than six weeks. Although constructed at huge public expense and using the best minds and materials available at the time, the Maginot Line has heretofore become emblematic of any plan or announced remedial strategy that people hope will prove effective but instead fails miserably.

When Lehman Brothers was sent to the knacker’s yard by its street rivals at Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley following closed door sessions with Government officials during the summer of 2008, the Best Minds on Wall Street and Constitution Avenue thought that they were protected from the fallout of a mega credit event by their risk management models and counterparty legal arrangements that included margin requirements, collateral postings and mark-to-market protocols. In fact with all major counterparty banks in place and able to continue functioning as market participants, the effect of the mega crash could have been contained, minimized and worked out. Before Dick Fuld and his management team was sent to the proverbial gibbet, the preponderance of derivatives contracts and exotic securities positions could have been settled out in a reasonably orderly fashion over time. However, with Lehman out of the way, the “netting” of derivatives and other exposures between institutions could no longer take place and someone had to step in to buy up the toxic waste that resulted from the abrupt halt to the “pass the hot potato game”. With Lehman out of the loop, the toxic waste had to end up on “someone’s” book.

The consequential effects of the secondary detonations in the securities and derivatives markets in the US following the demise of Lehman unleashed a wave of re-rating of sovereign risk which fell primarily onto the Europeans, who more than a decade ago had abandoned their treaty-bound commitments to fiscal probity and restraint in order to consummate a flawed monetary union riddled with institutional shortcomings and massive governance problems. “Someone” had to prop up Government Finance in the Euro-zone in order to give the pretence that things were still manageable or all of the banks there would have gone down the gurgler.

The “someone with the hot potato” in the US is the Fed which since the event has been mainly concerned with somehow papering over the losses, minimizing them, and possibly inflating them away. In Europe, the “someone” is the ECB which has under the prodding of its client institutions been stretching out the remediation process in order to dragoon the taxpayers of the various Euro-zone countries to shoulder the load of bailing out greedy banks and their profligate government clients.

The story of the Global Financial Crash is far from over. Nothing has been solved; and as we have repeatedly stated in our interactions with the public through speaking engagements, or on TV, or in the press, the policies that have been implemented so far have simply narrowed the degrees of freedom for future policy steps while at the same time increasing the likelihood of negative unexpected consequences being visited on markets (potentially with a heretofore unseen ferocity).

There are therefore still a few more chapters to play out in this unfolding narrative.

The present chapter opened around three weeks ago when, after a sleepy summer where nothing much happened, ECB President Draghi announced that he was going to do “whatever it takes” to save the Euro-zone and support the bond markets of all the deadbeat Euro-countries through central bank purchases of bonds (something that only a year ago had been definitively ruled out). At the time, most pundits fell into line and proclaimed that this “brilliant” move had effectively ended the crisis and all risk assets rallied sharply.

Since then, reality has set in. In fact, Draghi can no more proclaim to have unlimited resources to solve Euro-Crisis that he can claim to be able to solve world hunger. As we have said repeatedly in the past the democratic fact is that voters in the affluent Euro-core are not going to go for what these solutions imply. Moreover as the ECB expands its balance sheet “without limit” the credit quality declines and the risk profile of the ECB shareholders correspondingly increases. The expansion at Europe’s Central Bank is off-set with a deterioration of the national credit quality of the nations so that the entire construct sets itself up for the possibility of being further downgraded. We pointed this obvious flaw in this strategy out on the air around a year ago.

To complicate matters further, most securities analysts have been paring back earnings forecasts and published data has turned rather negative. In fact over 80% of the world’s manufacturing capacity is now in contraction.

On this side of the pond we were treated to Dr Bernanke going “All-in” with his open-ended commitment to print money through QE3 (an event that we have been predicting since QE1 was announced ). Without belaboring all of the issues, we have with Mr Bernanke’s implied claims that he knows better that the markets what interest rates should be and how capital and lending flows need to be directed at a particular point in time; let us just examine a small example of his fatal conceit that we have drawn from the speech he gave yesterday in Indianapolis.

“The securities that the Fed purchases in the conduct of monetary policy are held in our portfolio and earn interest. ……. Ultimately, the securities held by the Fed will mature or will be sold back into the market. So the odds are high that the purchase programs that the Fed has undertaken in support of the recovery will end up reducing, not increasing, the federal debt, both through the interest earnings we send the Treasury and because a stronger economy tends to lead to higher tax revenues and reduced government spending.(Page 7)”

While Dr Bernanke so glibly proclaims that “the securities held by the Fed will mature or will be sold back into the market” as if this operation was some kind of benign voodoo magic with no real-world consequence, we would ask the good Doctor what will happen to the issuing institutions whose securities are “maturing” on the Fed’s books? Won’t these notes have to be re-financed to support asset positions or ongoing activities at the borrowing institution? Who will conveniently show up to buy this re-issued paper in the amounts that the Fed has so done in the past, and, more importantly, at what price?

This is debt management 101.

In deference to the esteemed Fed Chairman, we will only ask one more question that flows from this fantastical description of his policy: If this is the magic bullet, and printing money actually reduces debt painlessly as you so describe, then why have we ever bothered with trying to do things any other way?

Now, after having read his speech yesterday and having managed to regain cognitive equilibrium, we offer on sober reflection that the ECB and Fed policy announcements boil down to acts of desperation that are now, so shortly after being introduced, becoming obvious to the markets. Market participants know that all they have to do is wait for the cracks to appear before pouncing and bleeding the central bank players for significant trading profits.

The bottom line thus is that all Draghi and Bernanke did with their “Big Bazooka” announcements is buy some time, much in the same way that the French Military planners bought some time in constructing the Maginot Line before the German Military planners found a way to beat it. The only question is, “How much time have they bought?” Our expectation is that within a few short months, the ECB and Fed policies will again fail to prove equal to the task. Unfortunately the two biggest central bank players in the world have gone “All-in” on a policy which amounts to an ill-advised high stakes game of poker with the markets. There can be no retreat now.

This is the worst position a gambler can be in because it exposes their strategy to significant event risks and unanticipated outcomes.

The next card that is dealt could in fact blow the hand that they are jointly holding completely out of the water.

Postscript: A little known fact is that the Maginot Line and the Federal Reserve Building in Washington DC were both completed in the same year: 1937, during a period in history when failed financial policies and regional hostilities were driving the world towards catastrophe. In the just two short years following, there ensued an outbreak of general hostilities that led to WWII which brought with it global privation, outbreaks of disease, the directed mass extermination of ethnic groups, the mentally challenged and LGB populations; the first detonation of nuclear devices over heavily populated areas, the forced resettlement of hundreds of millions of people and the death of tens of millions.

Posted in Bankruptcy, Banks, Crisis, EU, Fed Policy, Gambling, IMF, Loan Losses, Restructuring, Sovereign Debt, USA | No Comments »

There is No Altruism Between Nations

Somebody should have referred to the title quote before the EMU was launched on a hope and a prayer only 13 short years ago. Yesterday we were again interviewed on the Euro-crisis as that event took another turn for the worse and continued its torturous progress towards what now seems increasingly likely – an uncontrolled dissolution of parts of the Grand Experiment.

Today we heard that Euro politicians are drafting federal plan to save the Euro-zone, that Moody’s has downgraded 28 Spanish banks, that a fellow named Yannis Stournaras has been named as Greece’s new finance minister, but also that the Greek Deputy Shipping Minster has resigned. And…wait, let’s not forget that Silvio Berlusconi has just thrown his hat into the ring to be Italy’s next Minister of Finance…You win some, you lose some.

Hope now fixes on the upcoming Euro-zone meetings this week. Euro-zone finance ministers are expected to hold a conference call tomorrow to discuss Spain and Cyprus’s requests for financial help, and there will inevitably be a lot more posturing ahead of the EU Summit scheduled for this Thursday and Friday

Again there are calls for Germany to take on the mantle of leadership and somehow bail everyone out. So far the Germans have been balking at calls for an end to the austerity push, to support the unification of fiscal policies and the issuance of jointly guaranteed Eurobonds and for the creation of an EU-wide deposit insurance mechanism. The problem with this view, that if only Germany were to change its stance, and then everything could be easily solved, is that it is naive in the extreme.

As I mentioned during the interview, even if Germany were to agree to all of these Grand Plans, the structural imbalances that gave rise to the crisis in the first place will not be resolved, economies will not resume growing, and a new crisis will rear its head in short order. Quite simply the periphery countries have a productivity disadvantage relative to Germany and also have uncompetitive wage structures relative to the Northern Europeans. This cannot be easily “patched”.

Moreover, we also know that in order for Germany to agree to such modifications to its membership in the EMU, it requires the Government to hold a public referendum on all of these changes. We also know that an overwhelming majority of Germans are not in favor of these new policies which see them subsidizing the zombies. (In fact, a recent poll showed that 69% of Germans want the Greeks out of the Euro)

Isn’t it time for the leadership of Europe to start talking about solutions that are actually possible instead of fantasizing about magic bullets?

Isn’t is time for the Europeans to stop the madness of throwing vast sums of money at what is in effect a bad trade?

"Quick operator, gimme the number for 911!!"

What Europe has needed from the very beginning is a reckoning and write down of the bad debts. They are on the books and won’t go away no matter how many policies are changed and how many bailouts are doled out. This “avoidance of loss recognition” has been the central aim of the bailout policies from the beginning. As we can now easily see, clinging to this strategy is causing a worsening of the loss position, causing a loss of confidence and contagion and promises to only increase the eventual size of the financial hole. This is being pursued nonetheless in the faint hope that the losses can avoided or pushed onto third parties that had no hand in manufacturing the crisis in the first place.(The taxpayers of other countries and future generations)

The only certainty that we now see regarding this miserable state of affairs is that there will be massive losses and that the eventual bill when it comes due will be much, much larger than it would have been two years ago when there was still a chance to nip this thing in the bud. Let us hope that that is where the similarities of our present condition with the 1930’s will end.

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“Thou Hast Seen Nothing Yet”

(This title is attributable to Miguel de Cervantes Saavedra – “Don Quixote”)

Recovery Partners was interviewed last Friday and again this past Monday regarding developments in the European debt crisis. Unfortunately these interviews only allow a little time to get some sound bites in and not a whole lot of time for reasoned analysis. Therefore  this blog is aimed at adding some needed color and insight to the SUN TV and BNN interviews that underline the seriousness of the situation.

The simple reality is that not much has been done to solve any of Europe’s financial problems since they started over three years ago and, as a consequence, the available runway that European policymakers have left with which to craft workable solutions to the debt mess is getting very short. What is extremely concerning therefore, is that the latest events indicate that the Euro-strategy of incrementalism and trying to stretch out the process before hard decisions have to be made is being pursued by the Eurocrats and politicians there with even more vigor now.

After dithering for years about the rot in the Spanish banking sector and botching the recapitalization of several failed banks a few short weeks ago, the political authorities there finally and reluctantly agreed to accepting aid from the Eurozone this past weekend. In flippant style, Spanish Prime Minister Rajoy triumphantly declared that he had arranged a “handy credit line” and that the crisis was “now over” before jetting off to Poland to see the Spanish footballers tie the Azzurri 1-1 in Gdansk.

When have we heard this type of denial before?

There is in fact much to worry about in the wake of the news regarding the Spanish bank bailout not in the least because there are more questions than answers coming out of this series of announcements

As we mentioned  in the TV interviews, these issues include:

• The fact that the EUR 100 MM amount mentioned, while much larger than the authorities may have admitted they were short in the past, is still likely far below the amounts that are really required. Certain estimates place the size of the hole at around EUR 400 Billion.
• The housing and real estate markets have been artificially propped up in Spain for years. Not only does this mean that it is now almost impossible to understand values without significant due diligence, this strongly suggests that there may be another downleg to the real estate bust there that would see even those lofty bailout requirements climb.
• This “credit line” as Rajoy so euphemistically termed the panic decision involving EUR 100 Billion (or more) piles more debt onto the very large debt load that Spain already has. Spanish central government funding requirements approach EUR 220 Billion for 2012 and almost EUR 170 Billion for 2013. Unfortunately, Spain is all but foreclosed from the traditional bond markets. Where will that funding and the not insubstantial funding for local governments not included in those requirements come from?
• But even before we consider the source of general Government funding requirements it is not even clear where this bank bailout money is going to come from or the specific terms of the deal. This table, drawn from a speech we recently delivered at an RBC Dexia client seminar, shows that for all intents and purposes that the EFSF mechanism is already tapped out. After accounting for dud guarantees and monies already earmarked, there is almost nothing left over. Note that the “Bank Recap” line in the table refers to the EUR 110 Billion that was only a few short months ago estimated by the ECB and IMF that the entire European Banking system needed. Now we find that Spain itself has gobbled up EUR 100 Billion. Also please note that the EFSF/ESM mechanism has been unable to fund itself and has been dowdgraded.
• What will the Greeks, Portuguese and Irish now think about the deals that they agreed to and will they now demand a “look-back” adjustment to the terms of those deals? Almost equally as important: What will now happen to the Italians who have mountains of debt to refinance and a government that, as admitted by Prime Minister Monti last week, is in its death throes and will likely have to call a snap election before its term expires next Spring? Italy is next in line to be punished by the markets and everyone knows it, yet there is no lifeline in place and moreover, none of the myriad zombie problems festering away elsewhere in Europe have been durably fixed.
• Similar to the Greek re-boot, this transaction calls into question the seniority of existing Spanish government debt obligations, potentially subordinating those to the creditor group that will make the “handy credit line” (ie BAILOUT) money available. This action has increased the risk of these obligations and has thus cast significant doubt over the ability of the Spaniards to raise any money at all from domestic and international bond markets.

Boiling all of this down, we come to the conclusion that we are seeing a tragedy play out in Spain that is very similar to the one still underway in Greece: The central Government has been foreclosed from raising money in the open market; there is an accelerating bank run in progress; to cope,  a hastily conceived bailout patch is applied by the ECB, IMF and EU which results in the very significant probability that Spain will continue to be unable to meet its financing requirements in the normal course. This Financial Frankenstein thus threatens to run smack into the refinancing obligations that loom just ahead.

Given the magnitude of Spain’s funding requirements and the cross border exposures it has to the rest of Europe, this policy is thus far from being a “handy credit line” as described by Prime Minister Rajoy. It rather more completely resembles a financial time bomb with the detonator already having been set in motion.

Nothing in this is therefore any cause for renewed confidence.

We reiterate the point that we have been making for several years now: Nothing has been solved by the various policy patches that have been applied by the Fed and other Central Banks together with the politicians in Europe and North America. Since the onset of the Global Financial Crisis all that has been achieved are temporary delays and the imposition of growing and severe constraints on future policy flexibility, while at the same time the risk of unanticipated open-ended outcomes, second order effects and other nasty surprises (Black Swans) has been vastly increased because of the approach followed. There is now a non-trivial risk that this Black Swan phenomenon could overwhelm the ability of existing institutions to successfully and properly cope with the various problems unless decisive action – loss recognition, write-down and remediation – is taken soon.

The experience so far easily proves that anything short of swallowing that bitter pill simply won’t work.

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Cognitive Dissonance*

There was a fantastic universal sense that whatever we were doing was right, that we were winning. . . .So now, less than five years later, you can go up on a steep hill in Las Vegas and look West, and with the right kind of eyes you can almost see the high-water mark—that place where the wave finally broke and rolled back.” Hunter S. Thompson, Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas

The Great Bull Market is winding down much in the same fashion as when the World moved past Hunter Thompson’s Go-Go Sixties and slipped into the stagflationary dystopia of the 1970’s. No better bellwether of this phenomenon is given today than the transformation of Facebook (Nasdaq: FB) from IPO darling to abused foster child in the few short days since the shares made their debut. Today with the Nasdaq ending flattish, Facebook moved lower for the second day and its shares are now changing hands at more than 17% below IPO levels despite frantic efforts by the dealer group to hold the line on price.

With the shares trading north of 75 on a P/E basis and earnings proving hard to grow rapidly, the Facebook IPO was probably a major disconnect with financial reality much in the same way that other disconnects are playing out across the globe.

In fact this “Facebook Flop” could be the sign of a major top.

More evidence of a “disconnect” comes from Greece. For example 75% of the population want to keep the Euro; while 75% of the population want to abandon austerity – the condition precedent the previous government bound the country to precisely in order to stay in the Euro. In a similar vein, polls in the Hellenes are still showing that more than half of the population expect a civil war there in the near future.

So, it looks like we will likely be in for some “shooting and looting” before this is over.

In what has now been framed as a debate between the supporters of the Hair Shirt of Austerity , most  notably Frau Merkel and her German countryfolk; against the Growth crowd, championed by Krugman, Obama, and many Euro countries, it is increasingly hard to maintain any confidence in the longevity of the EU in its current form; or for that matter the ability of politicians to chart a stable path to renewed prosperity.

In fact, the probable contagion impact of events that are flowing out of this policy impasse should be feared  because Europe and the US will not achieve a way out of this quagmire through either growth OR austerity, unless and until a key pre-condition for restarting those regional economic engines is met.

This is quite simply that we must have a reckoning and write-down of bad debts. Until now this has been resisted at all costs by banking and investor interests, aided and abetted by the world’s largest central banks and the IMF. Surely, the experience of Japan’s two “Lost Decades”, as an object lesson of what happens when you avoid the reckoning and write-down, should be reason enough to swallow the bitter pill and get on with the task at hand. Nonetheless Europe’s policymakers dither while patching over problems in place of applying durable solutions. What in fact was the Greek Bailout other than a mechanism to buy some time for the creditors? What was the failed effort to get Iceland to swallow its IMF-led bailout, other than a thinly-veiled attempt to hang the costs of bad bond positions on Icelandic taxpayers instead of the offshore banks that had gotten themselves burned? Why is the US Government not addressing the bank solvency problem that it has been obscuring from public view, or its structural deficit problem? Are any of these policies in any way socially sustainable beyond the very short run?

The answer is “No”.

Not surprisingly therefore, it looks like no one has confidence any longer that that the current set of plans will stick. Some are now suggesting a Greek exit (“Grexit”) as a way out coupled with a “firewall” for the rest of Europe to contain the contagion. This is fantastical thinking. In the first instance, the time window for that type of a move has long since closed – as we had repeatedly advised early on in the crisis, the best strategy would have been for the Greeks to have defaulted and negotiated a “soft exit” from the Euro some two years ago. This did not happen in time and now the terms of the Greek Bailout and the much larger size of the Greek liability make a default a very risky prospect for the Greeks, and for Europe. In the second instance the concept of a “firewall” is simply not credible in the current context. The only true “firewall”, to the extent it is possible to implement such a thing is: adherence to sound risk management, non-invasive but effective regulation, and a neutral “Hands-off” government policy posture that sets the stage for stable economic growth, development and trade.

At present, more, not less, European sovereigns are looking shaky, the EFSF/ESM bailout mechanism in Europe is unfunded and unworkable and the ECB is stretched. The recapitalization of Europe’s banks which last summer was being trumpeted to be completed by October 2011 has not progressed at all. In the US the situation is hardly different with many more insolvent banks being allowed to continue in business on the pretence that they are OK; the US economy is in “Nowheresville”, vast swathes of the personal sector suffering under some form of financial duress and the Fed is increasingly looking at a significant diminution in its menu of available policy options.

No one will be sheltered and no economy will properly recover until the rot and ruin of past excesses are carved away such that new shoots of durable economic activity can take root. This will not happen as long as there are zombie borrowers and zombie banks feeding off of the productive parts of the global economy at everyone else’s expense.

* Cognitive dissonance is a discomfort caused by holding conflicting cognitions(e.g., ideas, beliefs, values,, emotional reactions) simultaneously. In a state of dissonance, people may feel surprise, dread, guilt, anger, or embarrassment. The theory of cognitive dissonance in social  psychology proposes that people have a motivational drive to reduce dissonance by altering existing cognitions, adding new ones to create a consistent belief system, or alternatively by reducing the importance of any one of the dissonant elements.

Posted in Bankruptcy, Banks, Crisis, EU, Fed Policy, Sovereign Debt, USA | No Comments »

Ratings Agencies take Aim at Large Banks

Late yesterday the Moody’s Ratings agency announced that it was considering a downgrade of a number of Euro-zone, US and Canadian banks including Canada’s largest and arguably its most venerable banking institution, the Royal Bank of Canada (RBC). Readers might recall that Moody’s stripped the RBC of its Aaa rating in December 2010.

At the time this was not much of a surprise because the bank had been placed on negative credit watch earlier in that year largely due to an announcement by the RBC that it was seeking to generate a larger share of its total bottom line from Capital Markets businesses. The downgrade also occurred despite RBC having emerged from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) relatively unscathed and in much better shape than most of its offshore competitors. Other agencies soon followed suit with their own downgrades for the bank.

The RBC is currently rated AA- by S&P and Aa1 by Moody’s. Fitch, and DBRS the other major agency and Canada’s domestic credit watchdog respectively, both peg the RBC credit quality at AA. Thus while the latest Moody’s announcement will bring their ratings assessment into line with their major competitor, it still remains above the credit assessment given by the two smaller agencies

The recent ratings action again pays reference to that fact that RBC’s announced business plans are running into strong headwinds, not in the least due to the furor over implementation of the Volcker rule, but also because the markets that it is seeking to exploit in the search for revenues are running into difficulties in the form of widening spreads, lower volumes, poor funding conditions and deteriorating investor appetite.

Other Banks under review for possible downgrades include Citigroup, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley; and Moody’s said it is  extending its reviews on whether to lower ratings on Credit Suisse, Macquarie, Nomura, UBS, Barclays, BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, Royal Bank of Scotland and Societe Generale. Moody’s also extended ongoing reviews for downgrades on 11 companies.

Pointing to regulatory, balance sheet and liquidity the agency said in a statement after markets closed last night: “These difficulties, together with inherent vulnerabilities such as confidence-sensitivity, interconnectedness, and opacity of risk, have diminished the longer term profitability and growth prospects of these firms”.

The Moody’s news came hard on the heels of credit downgrades for a number of Euro-zone countries including Italy, Portugal and Spain because of uncertainty over the weakening profile of economic activity in Europe and a growing credibility gap regarding the advisability of the polices being forced on debtor countries by the EU/ECB/IMF “Troika”.

Do these Announcements now make the World now “Safer” from Financial Calamity?

Nothing could be further from the Truth.

In our opinion here at Recovery Partners, this latest wheeze from the Ratings Agencies is comparable to the fevered activity of Balinese pool boys trying to rearrange deck chairs in the middle of a force-5 Typhoon.

While EU leaders have droned on for the last several years about their intentions of putting a “firewall” around the banks and nations most afflicted by the euro zone debt crisis, nothing of the sort has occurred. In fact, the recent Long Term Refinancing Operation (“LTRO”) in Europe and ongoing easements in collateral rules make a massive outbreak of contagion more likely rather than less likely because, systemic risk is increasingly becoming a function of the credit quality of the weakest banks, rather than the strongest banks. The ratings agencies’ recent focus on the stronger banks such as the RBC only serve to underscore the  point that these announcements are largely a sideshow.

As we know, mark-to-market rules have either been overtly suppressed by regulators in Europe and North America or ignored.

In fact, given the unrelenting stresses in the interbank markets in Europe and elsewhere, we are wondering whether or not we are close to an explicit “event of diktat” similar to what was recently announced by the Chinese authorities. Not widely publicized, a particular example of how bad things are is given by China, the authorities there have recently commanded the banks to roll over maturing loans to local authorities in full knowledge that they are non-performing and cannot be, and will not be, paid back even under the rosiest of scenarios because they are backed by asset positions that are largely worthless and non-income producing. In the wake of the GFC, Chinese Banks lent the equivalent of 25% of Chinese GDP to local authorities. This is not a small problem.

Having the central government tell the Chinese banks to represent (to the regulator controlled by it no less!)  that the loans are sound will not make them pay off nor reduce the eventual chop that the banks will have to take. This subterfuge only postpones the inevitable day of reckoning and contributes to further uncertainty.

A notch or two on RBC’s rating or on the ratings of similar banks is hardly an issue that anyone  should lose sleep over in the current environment. There are much, much bigger demons out there.

Posted in Bank Loans, Banks, Canada, Crisis, EU, Regulatory, Sovereign Debt, USA | No Comments »

Living in the Past

“It’s interesting to note that 20 years later we have realized — we have succeeded — in creating a more stable foundation for that economic and monetary union, and in so doing we’ve advanced political union and have attended to weaknesses that were included in the system.” Angela Merkel  9^th December 2011

The weekend headlines blared a mixture of adulation and success: “Resurgent Germany”, “Shrewd Sarkozy”, “Britain Isolated”. In fact Germany is far from resurgent, Sarkozy is more reacting to events rather than leading solutions, and Great Britain’s refusal to submit to fiscal control from Brussels is hardly a surprise given that she is not a member of the Monetary Union.

Had the agreement for fiscal union been reached prior to the launch of the Euro that would have been extremely favorable news; and the fiscal controls, had they been made to work would likely have muted the breadth and depth of the current Eurozone crisis. But alas, we are not living in 1991. It is 2011 and the promised reforms are just that: “promised”, they still are subject to debate and ratification by each member nation. And then there is the question of sanctions against members who violate the proposed fiscal rules. If the enforcement mechanisms are too stringent, no national government will ratify the fiscal proposals. If they are too lax, the agreement will be toothless and incapable of serving as a bulwark against some future crisis.

But the real story is that the proposed agreement does not address any of the urgent and important issues that the Eurozone is facing right now. These stresses threaten the continued existence of the common currency. Last week’s entire exercise, and the posturing before, during, and after therefore must be judged as a lost opportunity of significant dimensions

• None of the structural problems relating to pensions and entitlements spending in a large number of countries has been adequately dealt with;
• At last count, large European banks are undercapitalized to the tune of over EUR 120 Bn. Moody’s Investors Service downgraded the three largest banks in France on Friday and said there was a “very high” probability that the French government would be forced to step in to support them if conditions worsened.
• Fifteen out of Seventeen EU countries were placed on negative Creditwatch last week by Standard and Poors.
• Greece, Ireland, Italy, and Portugal and Ireland cannot fund themselves at economical levels. Spain is arguably close to the borderline as is Belgium. Over the next 12 months the aggregate funding requirements for these countries amount to EUR 1000 Bn.
• The  EFSF is broken and no credible mechanism yet exists to replace it. Announcement of the formation date of the ESM as being in 2012 in place of 2013 does not make money available sooner until the ESM is actually funded. No updated funding plans were announced in the wake of the recent “dud” China funding effort launched in spectacularly disastrous fashion by Klaus Regler, the EFSF honcho.
• There is no relief for countries suffering with austerity. The solution, according to Merkel and Sarkozy appears to be “More Austerity!!”. As we have said in the past, the track record of these programs is not good, and that reflects cases where countries were able to devalue their currencies. In the present scenario no “Soft Exit” from the Euro for the PIIGS and other sufferers is being countenanced by the Euro Leaders. It is only a matter of time before large scale social unrest erupts in one of these places and/or the austerity programs are abandoned.
• The IMF is washing its hands of this mess. In fact, there may no longer be any legal or politically palatable way to re-engage the IMF after this episode. Similarly, the US is adopting a hands-off approach.
• One recurring theme of this crisis in Europe (and North America) was also played out yet again in that it was obvious that there is no political will to force banks that made all of the bad bets to pay for their oversights.
• The other recurring theme is that markets have again been asked to wait “another three months” for the next installment of this sorry saga.

Looking at the list above it becomes apparent that there are actually more and deeper problems on the boil now than in the late Fall when the crisis seemed to be close to a blow-off phase.

The Euro Leaders are likely taking comfort from the fact that there has been a muted to slightly positive market reaction to the announcements of last week. The reality is that what they are really admiring is the market reaction to the efforts of the Euro spin doctors hired to generate false headlines, and not developments that are substantive and likely to contribute to renewed and durable confidence in Eurozone economic management or the Euro itself.

Being suspicious of free markets, what the current Euro Leadership does not recognize is that markets do not necessarily follow a rational path in reacting to information and do not process it in a temporally consistent and predictable manner. Recovery Partners believes that although a measure of calm has returned, it will prove temporary. This is because the ongoing failure of the Euro politicians to implement apprpriate measures with enough speed and force to counter market pressures that are threatening the Euro’s survival is risking evaporation of what remains of the opportunity to turn things around. This is the fourth kick at the can this year. Each time anyone has looked for substantive progress, they have been left wanting.

For now, the relative calm in the markets is therefore more a reflection of year end book flattening and position squaring behavior rather than a true reaction to last week’s efforts of the Euro people to fix the problems. In a sense, it appears that a “Prozac Bubble” has formed to shield the markets from bad news in what is supposed to be a happy time of year.

Unless something intervenes to prick this “Prozac Bubble”, we will have to wait until the New Year to fund out what Mr. Market really thinks about the latest Euro-wheeze. Whatever the timing, in our opinion the reaction won’t be pretty.

Happy and I’m smiling,
walk a mile to drink your water.
You know I’d love to love you,
and above you there’s no other.
We’ll go walking out
while others shout of war’s disaster.
Oh, we won’t give in,
let’s go living in the past.

Once I used to join in
every boy and girl was my friend.
Now there’s revolution, but they don’t know
what they’re fighting.
Let us close our eyes;
outside their lives go on much faster.
Oh, we won’t give in,
we’ll keep living in the past

Ian Anderson, Jethro Tull

Posted in Banks, Bond Market, Crisis, EU, IMF, Sovereign Debt | No Comments »

Frau Merkel, Just Say “Nein”!

“Was fällt, muß man nur noch stoßen”  Friedrich Nietzsche <PgDn for translation>

Dear Madam Chancellor,

This week will likely mark a critical turning point for Europe. The seriousness of the situation is underscored by the fact that this Euro-summit will also be attended by participants from the US Administration, the IMF and other third parties not normally seen at gatherings of the Eurozone political leadership.

You alone among the Euro leadership have consistently understood and have attempted to communicate that we should stop kidding ourselves that this crisis can be solved without a lot of pain.

By this point it should be clear that the tried and tested solutions for dealing with insolvency and default must be pursued. This means that Europe needs triage and restructuring, not additional “can kicking” and “monetary fakery” as some would suggest.

It also means that the “incremental” approach followed in the past 3 years has not only failed, it has become extremely counterproductive, and must be replaced by an action plan that features decisive and rapid action that will offer markets a clear roadmap to recovery.

For the negotiations that are upcoming the choice therefore is clear: you must either (1) lead Germany (and Europe) down a path of delusion and pain, submitting to the “funny money” Brussels elites who are calling for bond buying and money printing and inflicting significant cost and suffering on the peoples of Northern Europe (Germany and France being the key players) who have not over-borrowed or otherwise badly managed their economies, in order to bail out certain other nations who have done just that; all at the risk of huge expense yet with no guarantee of sustainable success; or (2), you must lay the groundwork for an orderly restructuring of the Monetary Union, which will see certain nations leave the Euro-zone (Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain; with Italy remaining within the EMU as a possible “Associate Member”), so that these exiting nations might catch their breath and recover. Accession plans for other nations would be put on indefinite hold.

Do not listen to the Brussels elites that believe that the problems can be papered over in the same fashion that US policymakers believe that they have done in the US. These types of gambles have never worked and inevitably have led to worse problems. It is a tacit axiom of international relations that there is no “altruism between nations” and therefore no legal, moral or ethical principle exists that would suggest the profligate countries should continue to benefit from the largesse of their neighbors at whatever the cost and without sanction. Now is the time to restructure out the countries that are not suited to, or capable of, following the fiscal and monetary discipline required as per the agreements they acceded to when they entered the Eurozone. Contrary to the advice that you may be offered by others connected to this situation, the plans for fiscal union and the role of the ECB should be sorted out after the membership structure has been adjusted. Moreover, in order to exit the crisis there is absolutely no need to add to the powers of the ECB.

There are some who say that breaking up the Eurozone would be an expensive mistake that Europe cannot afford. We say it is a course of action that Europe cannot afford not to take. There are political as well as financial reasons for this.

Following reunification Germany had a period of adjustment which was expensive, painful and lengthy. Your recent elections have shown that the German people do not want to see these sacrifices and achievements squandered. In fact, most of your neighbors are fully supportive of your policies during the recent crisis period and are looking to Germany to supply continued reasoned and reliable stewardship of this situation.

This crisis and the crisis in the United States are evidence that the West is wounded and its way of life is at risk. That means repairing (not bailing out) the financial system and insolvent countries quickly as possible. Therefore any plan that promises to restore stability at a minimum of risk and cost should be greeted favorably by all Europeans, Americans and their allies. Already too much time and money has been squandered pursuing unworkable solutions aimed at preserving some kind of idealistic and now unattainable, “status quo ante” in the Euro area.

The US should be in favor of this for that very reason, and also because a festering crisis in Europe imposes strong headwinds on the fragile growth potential in the United States, restraining activity and complicating the job of economic management there. The same is true for the UK. And the same should be true of the Euro-zone countries now under financial pressure and having to deal with austerity programs without the ability to devalue the currency that they use. In the latter case it is extremely unlikely that the austerity programs will bear fruit before a time bomb of social upheaval and popular discontent explodes and drives these nations even further into chaos.

Caption: An anti-austerity protester holds a placard with the Greek flag and swastika reading "NO to the 4th Reich" after a student parade in Athens, on Friday, Oct. 28, 2011. The student march, in commemoration of the 71st anniversary of Greece's entry into World War II, went on without major incident, but in other cities officials were heckled and in Thessaloniki, Greece's second city, a military parade was canceled. They also wrote “1941-2011 The enemy is the same”. Some shouted slogans “Germany Out from the EU”. (AP Photo/ Thanassis Stavrakis)

Europe is no stranger to currency crises. We saw enough of those throughout the 1970’s, 1980’s, and 1990’s. With the exception of the UK in the 1970’s the IMF has never before intervened in European affairs. This crisis is a European problem, and there is no strong rationale for IMF lending under the existing IMF articles. In fact the IMF does not even have sufficient resources to render any offer of assistance credible. Moreover some of the less wealthy members of the IMF would begin to register legitimate complaints about co-opting the IMF to bail out large wealthy nations. Europe has lots of money and no balance of payments problem. The Euro is a reserve currency. You and your country can do a lot to fix this problem, and using the Bundesbank, the German Treasury and the ECB, you can do everything that the IMF can do.  We are sure that the very experienced people on 19^th Street in DC understand the difference between a bad risk and a good one, know that they have scarce resources, and would welcome the chance to step aside.

Part of the costs will be the default of the Greeks, Irish, Portuguese and the Spanish and possibly the Italians, and needed bank recapitalizations in those economies and for banks in other Eurozone countries. The costs for the leavers can be estimated by looking at past crises. According to the IMF which has examined  over 100 currency and banking crises, the data show that for countries that have experienced a banking and a currency crisis (the most severe combination of adverse events) that the average output loss is about 18.8 percent, and that the average time to full output recovery is around 2.6 years. The Eurozone problem countries have already experienced these types of losses in the three years since the crisis descended upon them, but there is no recovery in sight. On the present course there is also no end game, no guarantee that the bailouts will prove successful and no estimate of the final bill.

Your national treasure will be better spent on a program of triage and recovery accompanied by the needed reforms to the EMU beyond the exit of the wayward countries. This combination of measures will deliver finite costs within a reasonably finite timeframe and, we believe, will ultimately prove politically palatable to the peoples of Europe and their neighbors.

Who knows ….if you can pull this off, one day a re-energized, institutionally more robust and better managed Euro might supplant the USD as the Number One Reserve Currency for the world.

Best Regards and Good Luck,

 

Recovery Partners

——————————————————————– 

Frau Merkel, sagen Sie einfach “Nein”!

“If you see anything that is falling, give it an extra push for good measure”  Friedrich Nietzsche

Sehr geehrte Frau Bundeskanzlerin,

Diese Woche wird wahrscheinlich markieren einen wichtigen Wendepunkt für Europa. Der Ernst der Lage wird durch die Tatsache, dass diese Euro-Gipfel wird auch von Teilnehmern aus der US-Regierung, dem IWF und anderen Menschen in der Regel nicht bei Versammlungen der Eurozone politische Führung gesehen besucht werden unterstrichen.

Sie allein unter den Euro-Führung haben stets verstanden und haben versucht zu vermitteln, dass wir aufhören sollten, uns gegenuber zu sherzen, dass diese Krise ohne große Schmerzen gelöst werden kann.

An diesem Punkt sollte klar sein, dass die bewährten Lösungen für den Umgang mit Insolvenz ausgeübt werden müssen. Dies bedeutet, dass Europa muss Triage und Schuldenumstrukturierung folgen, und nicht zusätzliche „Can kicking” und „Monetary fakery“ wie manchen würden vorschlagen.

Es bedeutet auch, dass die “inkrementelle”-Ansatz das in den letzten 3 Jahren verfolgt wurde, hat nicht nur versäumt, es hat sich extrem kontraproduktiv vorgestellt und muss durch einen Aktionsplan, der entscheidende und rasches Handeln, das Angebot Märkte einen klaren Fahrplan, um Recovery-Funktionen ersetzt werden.

Für die kommende Verhandlung ist est also klar: Sie müssen entweder (1) führen Deutschland (und Europa) auf einen Weg der Täuschung und des Schmerzes, die sich dem “funny money” Brüsseler Eliten, die für die Anleihe zu kaufen und Geld drucken anrufen und fügt erhebliche Kosten und Leid über die Völker des nördlichen Europa (Deutschland und Frankreich zu den wichtigsten Akteuren), die nicht über over-geliehen oder anderweitig schlecht ihre Volkswirtschaften geführt, um aus der Patsche helfen bestimmte andere Nationen, die genau das getan haben, alle an das Risiko von großen Lasten noch mit keine Garantie für nachhaltigen Erfolg, oder (2), müssen Sie den Grundstein für eine geordnete Umstrukturierung der Währungsunion, die unter bestimmten Ländern verlassen die Euro-Zone (Griechenland, Irland, Portugal, Spanien lag ; mit Italien noch in der EWU als mögliche “Associate Member”), so dass diese spannende Nationen könnte zu Atem zu kommen und wieder wachsen konnen. Beitritt Pläne für andere Nationen würden auf unbestimmte Zeit gehalten werden.

Mann kann nicht die heutigen Probleme mit Tapete verstecken. Diese Arten von Glücksspielen haben noch nie gearbeitet und unweigerlich zu schlimmeren Problemen geführt haben. Es ist eine stillschweigende Axiom der internationalen Beziehungen, dass es keine “Altruismus zwischen den Nationen” gibt und damit auch keine rechtlichen, moralischen oder ethischen Grundsatz gilt, dass würde vorschlagen, die verschwenderische Länder sollten weiterhin von der Großzügigkeit ihrer Nachbarn an, und ohne Sanktion. Jetzt ist die Zeit zur Umstrukturierung aus den Ländern, die nicht geeignet sind, oder in der Lage, im Anschluss an die fiskal-und geldpolitische Disziplin gemäß den Vereinbarungen sie, wenn sie in die Eurozone beigetreten erforderlich. Im Gegensatz zu den Rat, den Sie bereits vielleicht schon erhalten haben, sollten die Pläne für das Geschäftsjahr Union und die Rolle der EZB aussortiert werden, nachdem die EWU-Mitgliedschaft Struktur angepasst hat. Darüber hinaus, um die Krise zu beenden gibt es absolut keine Notwendigkeit, die Befugnisse der EZB hinzuzufügen.

Es gibt einige, die Auflösung der Eurozone wäre ein teurer Fehler, dass Europa es Sich nicht leisten kann, werden sagen. Wir sagen, es ist ein Vorgehen, dass Europa Sich nicht leisten kann, nicht zu nehmen. Es gibt politische als auch finanzielle Gründe.

Nach der Wiedervereinigung hatte Deutschland eine Phase der Anpassung, die teuer, schmerzhaft und langwierig war. Ihre kürzlichen Wahlen haben gezeigt, dass das deutsche Volk will nicht diese Opfer und Leistungen verschwendet zu sehen. In der Tat sind die meisten Ihrer Nachbarn voll und ganz hinter Ihrer Politik während der Krise Zeitraum und sind in Deutschland auf eine weitere vernünftige und zuverlässige Verwaltung von dieser Situation zu liefern.

Diese Krise und die Krise in den Vereinigten Staaten sind der Beweis, dass der Westen verwundet ist und seine Art zu leben ist in Gefahr. Das bedeutet, dass die Reparatur (nicht „Bailout“) des Finanzsystems und insolventen Ländern so schnell wie möglichpassieren soll. Daher ist jede Plan, um die Stabilität bei einem Minimum an Risiko und die Kosten wieder Versprechungen positiv von allen Europäern, Amerikanern und ihren Verbündeten begrüßt. Schon zu viel Zeit und Geld verschwendet worden verfolgt undurchführbar Lösungen zur Erhaltung einer Art idealistischen und nun unerreichbar, “status quo ante” in der Euro-Zone ab.

Die USA sollten sich für diese gerade aus diesem Grund, und auch, weil eine schwärende Krise in Europa auferlegt starken Gegenwind auf der fragile Wachstumspotenzial in der USA, einstweilige Aktivität und erschweren die Arbeit des ökonomischen Managements gibt. Das gleiche gilt für das UK. Und das gleiche sollte auch für die Länder der Eurozone nun unter finanziellem Druck und mit mit Sparprogramme ohne die Fähigkeit, die Währung abzuwerten, die sie verwenden viel. Im letzteren Fall ist es äußerst unwahrscheinlich, dass die Sparprogramme wird Obst vor einer Zeitbombe des sozialen Umbruchs und der Unzufriedenheit in der Bevölkerung explodiert tragen und treibt diese Nationen noch weiter ins Chaos.

Europa ist kein Fremder in Währungskrisen. Wir sahen genug von diesen ganzen 1970er Jahre, 1980er und den 1990er. Mit Ausnahme von ber UK in den 1970er Jahren hat der IWF noch nie zuvor in europäischen Angelegenheiten eingegriffen. Diese Krise ist ein europäisches Problem, und es gibt keine starken Gründe für IWF-Kredite im Rahmen der bestehenden IWF-Artikel. In der Tat der IWF nicht einmal über ausreichende Mittel verfügen, um ein Angebot der Unterstützung glaubhaft zu machen. Darüber hinaus einige der weniger wohlhabenden Mitglieder des IWF beginnen würde, um legitime Beschwerden über die Kooptierung des IWF zur Rettung von großen wohlhabenden Nationen registrieren. Europa hat viel Geld und keine Zahlungsbilanz Problem. Der Euro ist eine Reservewährung. Sie und Ihr Land können eine Menge tun, um dieses Problem zu beheben, und mit der Bundesbank, die deutsche Finanzminister und der EZB, können Sie alles tun, dass der IWF tun können. Wir sind sicher, dass die sehr erfahrene Leute an der 19th Street in DC der Unterschied zwischen einem schlechten Risiko und ein gutes Verständnis, wissen, dass sie knappe Ressourcen haben, und würde die Chance, beiseite zu treten willkommen.

Ein Teil der Kosten ist dass die Griechen, der irischen, portugiesischen und spanischen und möglicherweise die Italiener, Bankrott sind und auch benötigt Rekapitalisierungen der Banken in den Volkswirtschaften und für die Banken in anderen Ländern der Eurozone. Die Kosten für die Abiturienten können, indem Sie auf vergangene Krisen geschätzt werden. Nach dem IWF, die über 100 Währungs-und Bankenkrisen untersucht hat, zeigen die Daten, die für die Länder, dass eine Bank-und eine Währungskrise (die schlimmste Kombination von unerwünschten Ereignissen), die mittlere Ausgangsleistung Verlust über 18,8 Prozent erlebt haben, und dass die durchschnittliche Zeit bis zur vollen Leistung Erholung um 2,6 Jahre. Die Eurozone Problem Länder haben bereits diese Art von Verlusten in den drei Jahren seit der Krise auf sie herab erlebt, aber es gibt keine Erholung in Sicht. Auf dem gegenwärtigen Kurs gibt es auch kein Ende Spiel, keine Garantie, dass die Rettungsaktionen als erfolgreich erweisen werden und keine Schätzung der Endabrechnung.

Ihr nationaler Schatz wird besser auf ein Programm der „Triage-und Recovery“ durch die notwendigen Reformen des EMU begleitet über den Ausgang des eigensinnigen Ländern ausgegeben werden. Diese Kombination von Maßnahmen werden endlich die Kosten in einem angemessenen Zeitrahmen zu liefern und endlich, wie wir glauben, sich letztlich als politisch schmackhaft zu den Völkern Europas und ihre Nachbarn.

Wer weiß…. wenn Sie dies zu erreichen, einen Tag mit eine neuer Energie, institutionell robuster und besser verwaltet Euro könnte der USD als Nummer eins der Reserve Währung für die Welt zu verdrängen.

Mit freundlichen Glückwunschen,

Recovery Partners

Posted in Banks, Crisis, EU, IMF, Restructuring, Sovereign Debt, USA | No Comments »

The Canary in the Coal Mine Part II

In our last blog installment we asked, given the present unsettled state of the world the real issue for clear-thinking people is: “What comes next after these “Occupiers” fade into the sunset?”

Well, here in Toronto the OWS has been dispersed, the “Library Yurt” in St. James’ Park has been dismantled and its “defenders” bundled off; and who better to provide some insight into that question than The Right Honourable Tony Blair, the former Prime Minister of Great Britain from 1997 to 2007 and since then the Official Envoy to the Middle East for the Quartet? 

Recovery Partners attended a dinner last week where Mr Blair was the keynote speaker. A key message that he delivered was that the world is shifting very fast, and it is more interdependent and interconnected than ever before. Following that theme, he said that today’s politicians must quickly get used to the fact that they have to make “Big Decisions” and they must the right ones and make them quickly or risk losing control of the situation the West confronts today. This message ran through his entire address.

As for the situation in Europe Mr. Blair strongly advised that leaders there must recognize that the Eurozone is shifting from the “Politics of the Grand Design” to the “Politics of the Grand Plan”. It is the Grand Plan that has eluded decision-makers there. Unfortunately for Europe, however, Mr. Blair emphasized that, in this regard, the Eurozone and its leaders cannot afford to rely on a strategy that makes incremental changes that lead to incremental gains. This requires that the current Eurozone leadership realize that the crisis there is not a situation to be “managed: Today’s leaders have to take Big Decisions at an Existential and Fundamental level (which in itself is an act that risks or provokes a collapse of the system unless the right decisions and plans are implemented). The key realization here is that the single currency crisis has exposed a need for reform, it has not created that need.

Mr. Blair went on to say that the true operative timeframe now for the Euro rescue must be measured in weeks not months if the Eurozone is to be saved. This means that everyone in Brussels and in the Euorzone countries needs to get behind the Euro. In the longer term decisions need to be taken about a European Fiscal Union and Fiscal Reform. There are clear flaws in the Monetary Union Project, but for now a crisis management solution must be implemented quickly.

Everything is preferable to a breakup as the consequences are serious for both creditors and debtors therefore people on all sides of the negotiating table should be motivated to find a decision. Based on the foregoing there is simply is no “middle course” according to Mr Blair.

Similarly, the US Economy requires dramatic decisions that the Leadership there has avoided. Mr. Blair enumerated several “huge challenges” facing the US including debt levels, deficits, needed reform of the tax code, and an urgent need to rebalance the economy in favour of a more equitable division of National Income. He was unequivocal in saying that needed decisions have been deferred and have been piling up for years and these imperatives can now no longer be ignored.

As noted above Mr. Blair has spent a good deal of time since leaving office preoccupied with events and developments on the Middle East. His main message here, following from above, was that the Arab Spring, the Israeli Palestinian conflict, and Islam’s relationship to the West are all not only interconnected, they are key agenda items.

While it has become obvious that a variety of  regime shifts have going on in the Middle East, it is less obvious to note that most lack stability. In many countries modernization has outstripped to ability of the economy and population to keep up. Here, the main difference between Eastern Europe and the Fall of the Berlin Wall and what is going on in the Middle East today, is that with the Fall of Communism there was: (1) Unity among the Eastern Bloc population on what they wanted to get rid of; and, (2) unity among those peoples on their desire to adopt a Western Way of life, its aspirations and values.

Mr. Blair explained that in this regard, today in the Arab world there is no cohesion around what the population would like to structure in place of deposed regimes and dictators. Therefore it would be a huge mistake for the West to assume that people there just want to move towards a stable democracy. The simple model of modernization conveniently ignores the deep influences or tribalism and religion in many of these countries.

Therefore it is not obvious what the outcome in many of these countries will actually be. That means that unless we take strong positive action to get people into the right frame of mind that there will be problems with the transition.

Many of the regimes outside the West are quite strong and resistant to “Arab Spring” type events. They afford a measure of political stability. The folks who are a serious threat to these regimes or the status quo in those countries are usually either co-opted or neutralized

To underscore this point Mr. Blair said that many prominent people in these countries are extremely nervous about making ANY move, let alone the RIGHT move….and that this is happening throughout the region. Therefore he emphasized that we in the West we have to stay engaged with these populations. Specifically he stated that we have to assist with change, help these societies cope with modernization and at the same time, challenge them. The West needs to demonstrate that democracy is not only about a constitution and right to vote, it is also about: (1) an attitude to life, (2) freedom of expression, (3) freedom of religion, (4) freedom to work and transact in open, transparent and fairly-regulated markets, and (5) the requirement to live with tolerance and diversity.

The World no longer revolves solely around the US and Europe regarding strategies and political imperatives based around territorial interests. In fact the West must understand that the main message it must represent going forward is a Way of Life: Freedom, Democracy, Justice, and Tolerance being but some of the watchwords. Through leadership and vision we should impress upon the emerging and newly middle income economies to come to the conclusion that they would do far better to emulate the West rather than if they did something else.

Mr Blair’s remarks were warmly received and appreciated. Clearly in command of the subject matter and charismatic, he could probably have gone on for several hours. From our persepctive his address was as much an observation on the current state of affairs as it a warning to all of us that unless a more constructive approach to our problems is pursued by politicians both in Europe, North America and elsehwhere, that the consequences could be extremely undesireable.

This week financial markets in Europe remained on a knife edge and the US political class again showed that it continues to behave in a manner that is completely unresponsive to market discipline. The indicatiors on the threat board continue to flash yellow and red.

I am reminded of a luncheon I attended in Tokyo shortly after the fall of the Berlin Wall, when the then Russian Foreign Minister, Andrey Kozyrev, was asked by a member of the press how things would turn out in Russia. His response was that “No one is in full control, any one of hundred outcomes are possible and most of them are ones that people really won’t like.” As events have shown since then, it appears that the world and Russia herself has largely lucked out.

We may not be so fortunate this time.

Posted in Crisis, EU, Economy, Middle East, OWS, USA | No Comments »